Financials Unshackled: Weekly Banking Update (UK / Irish / Global Banking Developments)
Key UK / Irish / Global Banking Developments from the last week
The material below does NOT constitute investment research or advice - please scroll to the end of this publication for the full Disclaimer
Welcome to the latest issue!
Welcome to Financials Unshackled Issue 32. It’s an Irish long weekend (public holiday tomorrow) and I have been on the move so today’s note is late. Anyway I hope it provides you with an enjoyable ‘zip-through’ key developments from the last week.
Please email me at john.cronin@seapointinsights.com if you have any feedback, which is always welcome.
Calendar for the week ahead
Tue 4th Feb (09:00 BST): European Central Bank (ECB) Euro area bank interest rate statistics - December 2024
Wed 5th Feb (c.07:00 BST): Santander UK FY24 Results (for the 12 months to 31st December 2024)
Wed 5th Feb (11:00 BST): Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) Monthly Card Payment Statistics - December 2024
Wed 5th Feb (14:00 BST): Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB1) Capital Markets Event
Thu 6th Feb: UK Finance Arrears and possessions - Q4 2024
Thu 6th Feb (12:00 BST): Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Summary, Monetary Policy Report, and Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes
UK Updates
1) What’s going on at Santander UK?
Santander UK issued a RNS on Tuesday 28th January here announcing that William Vereker, Board Chair, has indicated his intention to step down early from the Santander UK plc and Santander UK Group Holdings plc Boards during the course of 2025. The FT reported here that this development has “…exposed a rift with the bank’s Spanish parent and its executive chair Ana Botin, according to people familiar with this matter” (though, it must be noted, that Vereker reportedly informed the FT that there had been no “personal rift” between him and Botin). Separately, Jill Treanor penned a detailed piece in The Sunday Times (published on the website last evening here) on Santander UK following an interview with Ana Botin - with Botin noting that the bank is not for sale: “The UK is not for sale. We love the UK and the UK will remain a core market. We have a strategy review every year. The UK is profitable, the UK provides diversification to us because it’s a different currency, it’s a low-risk balance sheet and I’m very happy with how the UK is making progress.”. I penned a detailed note on Santander UK on Wednesday 29th January (see Financials Unshackled Issue 31 here) and, for what it’s worth, I remain of the view that Santander Group would likely exit the UK to the extent that it could get out at or close to tangible book value. Based on Botin’s comments to The Sunday Times it does not appear that the confidence is there that an exit could be engineered at this kind of price level for now at least. Indeed, based on the underlying returns profile of the business (adjusting for excess capital and non-recurring provisions) - and taking into account the strong possibility of some positive regulatory developments in a UK context over the coming year or so - it would be a sensible decision to retain the business for now at least. Let’s see how it all plays out but, as noted in my 29th January piece, nothing is likely to happen quickly.
2) BoE update shows small bounceback in mortgage approvals in December
The Bank of England (BoE) published its monthly Money and Credit Statistics (including Effective Interest Rates) for December 2024 on Thursday 30th January. You can access the Money and Credit Statistics here - and some granular effective interest rate information here. Note that it appears there have been some (relatively minor) revisions to the prior month (November) lending volume data, mortgage approval numbers, and household deposit volume data since original publication on 3rd January last.
Key points from a lending volume perspective: i) net mortgage borrowing was back up again, to £3.6bn in December from £2.6bn in November (and £3.4bn in October) with the annual growth rate rising to +1.5% y/y from +1.3% y/y in November - continuing the upward growth trend observed since April 2024; ii) net mortgage approvals increased by 465 m/m to 66,526 in December following a reduction of 2,344 m/m in November (notably, remortgaging approvals were down by 730 m/m to 30,476); iii) net consumer borrowing increased slightly m/m to £1.0bn in December (+6.5% y/y) - with the c.£100m m/m increase attributable to higher credit card borrowing; iv) businesses repaid a net £0.2bn in December following a very strong m/m uptick observed in November, with non-financial businesses borrowing a net £6.0bn in that month, up from net borrowing of £3.2bn in October (while the monthly data can ebb and flow a bit the trend is still clear, i.e., growth has been picking up - and, notably, the annual rate of growth in large business lending was +3.9% y/y in December (from +4.1% y/y in November and +2.2% y/y in October) though SME net lending still remains lower y/y at -1.9% y/y in December (though improved on the -2.6% y/y in November)).
Key points from a loan pricing perspective: i) the effective interest rate on new mortgage drawdowns was 4.47% in December, -3bps m/m (the lowest since April 2023); ii) the average interest rate on the outstanding stock of mortgage debt was -1bp m/m to 3.79% in December; iii) the effective interest rate on interest-charging overdrafts was -36bps m/m to 22.50% in December; iv) the effective interest rate on new personal loans was -11bps m/m to 8.85% in December; v) the effective interest rate on interest-bearing credit cards was +3bps m/m to 21.57% in December; and vi) the average cost of new borrowing by UK non-financial businesses was -27bps m/m to 6.29% in December while the effective interest rate on new SME loans was -11bps m/m to 7.06%.
Key points from a deposit volume and pricing perspective: i) household deposits were +£4.5bn in December (following growth of +£0.2bn in November and substantial growth of +£18.8bn in October); ii) the effective interest rate paid on new time deposits was -6bps m/m to 3.96% in December and the effective rates on the outstanding stock of time and sight deposits were 3.74% and 2.17% in December respectively (-6bps and -4bps m/m respectively); iii) business deposits were +£13.0bn in December (following net withdrawals of £5.9bn in November); and iv) the effective rate on new time deposits from non-financial businesses was -1bp m/m to 4.21% in the month while the effective rate on stock sight deposits was also -1bp m/m to 2.58% in December.
Key concluding remarks: i) the outstanding stock of household and business credit is continuing to expand, supported by lower interest rate expectations and - and while December is a peculiar month, y/y growth rates are decent; ii) deposits are growing; and iii) pricing trends on new lending and deposit flows still appear marginally favourable from a net interest margin (NIM) expansion perspective when one takes into account the trend over multiple months (however, wider factors at an individual lender level including legacy loan stock roll-off and structural hedge roll are separate influencers from an individual lender NIM perspective).
3) UK Finance publishes its response to BoE MREL consultation
UK Finance published a response to the Bank of England’s (BoE) consultation on MREL (which I covered in Financials Unshackled Issue 12 here) on Monday 27th January which can be accessed here. Most notably, UK Finance calls out that: i) the BoE should consider and publish how this proposal (and other proposals from the Resolution Directorate) meet the government’s growth and competitiveness objectives for regulators; ii) the proposals relating to contractual triggers should be revised given that they don’t align with he Financial Stability Board’s (FSB) total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) regime; and iii) the BoE should radically change its approach to both the total assets and transaction account thresholds. The UK Finance position is sensible. The BoE’s position with respect to the total assets threshold particularly continues to, despite the proposed upward revisions, stand in marked contrast to both the EU position (€100bn total assets trigger point though non-Pillar 1 banks can also be subject to MREL requirements; click here for more details) and the US position (applies only to US G-SIBs and the US operations of the largest and most systemic foreign banking organisations). I repeat here my views to the effect that the low total assets thresholds in a UK context are unnecessarily damaging to smaller lender viability as we saw with Metro Bank (MTRO) in 2019 where, perversely, the need for the bank to issue MREL-eligible debt proved to be the tipping point that pushed the bank into financial instability (when, prior to the issuance, its deposits were actually stable), thereby - ironically and entirely unnecessarily at the time - increasing the risk of depositor losses (good Lex column in the FT last Tuesday on the thresholds here too). So, while some progress is good, I for one am of the view that the thresholds should be increased materially further (to £50-75bn at least). That’s my view on the outright total assets threshold - but, separately, I understand why the BoE is disinclined to meddle with the transactional accounts indicative threshold (40,000-80,000 accounts) given the SVB UK experience. On a final note on this I can’t help but feel there are likely to be factions within the BoE who absolutely regret going with such a low threshold of £15-25bn all those years ago (and maybe some always felt it was too low…) - but, to propose lifting it materially at the stage of the consultation paper publication last October could have backfired as it could have been interpreted as an ‘admission of guilt’ as it were (I would imagine certain MTRO shareholders making their grievances known as just one example) so it seemed easier to hide behind nominal economic growth as the underpin for a small increase (or maybe I’m just being too cynical…). But perhaps the BoE now has the ‘cover’ (given the strong government push for regulatory loosening) to jack up the thresholds much more meaningfully for once and for all - indeed, I would be surprised in the end if the BoE doesn’t run with the UK Finance suggestion to move up the total assets threshold to £40-50bn taking the UK Finance argument “to reflect enhancements to capital and resolution regimes and GDP inflation” as ample justification. Useful FT piece here on the lobbying effort too.
4) Snippets:
The FT reported here on Wednesday on remarks made by Andrew Bailey, Bank of England (BoE) Governor, to MPs in which he noted that he was “very happy to have a very open public debate” about the restrictions on UK mortgage lending but that any such conversation would also take into account the “better outcomes” that the rules have provided. This seems to be a sensible perspective. Reiterating my comments from Financials Unshackled Issue 30 (see here) last Sunday: “There are some nuances where requirements could be sensibly loosened in the case of first-time buyer lending in my view but many are of the opinion that it will be quite broader than this (with the 4.5x loan-to-income limit widely expected to be destined for the chop, for example) as the Labour government plough ahead in their push to tear up rules and regulations. I remain to be convinced of the wisdom of some of the upcoming expected changes in this particular context but the devil will be in the detail.”. Reuters also reported here on Wednesday that Bailey commented to the Treasury Committee that he is optimistic that the final Basel 3.1 implementation reforms package will ultimately come into force: “I remain optimistic that ... we'll get agreement on it and that we'll get through this. To be fair to the new U.S. administration, we have to give them time to get into place” - this is not surprising and the question is to what extent will the rules be further diluted (which I am not arguing against to be clear).
Bloomberg reported here on Tuesday 28th January that the Bank of England (BoE) is planning to investigate how banks measure their exposures within their prime brokerage divisions - with the regulator’s particular concerns understood to be in relation to potentially underappreciated risks given netting practices.
Moody’s moved on Monday last to assign a first time issuer rating of Baa2 to Aldermore Group PLC and Baa2 long-term deposit and issuer ratings to Aldermore Bank, with a stable outlook. Report available here.
The FT reported here that Barclays (BARC) is the latest bank to tighten its hybrid working policies with eFC also picking up here that 51 developers working across credit, equities, fixed income, FX and prime services technology in the UK have been cut (which, the article indicates, is a result of their nonconformity with hybrid working arrangements). Separately, BARC has received significant media coverage over the weekend owing to its customers’ inability to access online banking and its app as well as their inability to effect payments and transfers (as reported here in the FT on Friday). Thankfully it has been reported in the media today that the outages have finally been rectified (on day 3) and it has to highlight once again whether mainstream banks, despite all their fancy presentations in an investment spend context and overseas fact-finding missions, are channelling enough funds into technology investment even in just a ‘maintenance capex’ context. Finally, in a BARC-related news context, it is worth noting that: i) various Board changes were announced on Friday last here (including the retirement of NED Diane Schueneman); and ii) Bloomberg reported here on Monday last that BARC has delayed its EU office move from Dublin to Paris until 2027 at the earliest (which was also subsequently covered in The Irish Times here).
Bloomberg reported here on Tuesday 28th January that HSBC (HSBA) is winding down some of its investment banking activities in Europe, the UK and the Americas according to a memo seen by the news agency (which reportedly noted: “We will retain more focused M&A and equity capital markets capabilities in Asia and the Middle East, and we will look to wind-down those activities in Europe, the UK and the Americas”). HSBA has flip-flopped for decades in the context of its commitment to investment banking. While it’s positive to see decisive action looking through one lens (and share price momentum was broadly favourable in the aftermath of the news report), it will clearly be a difficult time for the investment banking staff base.
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY is set to close 136 branches across the UK in 2025 given the ongoing shift to digitally-driven banking - with the FT noting here that the bank stated that “Over 20 million customers are using our apps for on-demand access to their money and customers have more choice and flexibility for their day-to-day banking”. Indeed, I commented on the article itself noting that branch closures has been an ongoing process for years and makes sense in the context of reducing physical infrastructure and associated costs. Management is under pressure to get to its >15% FY26 RoTE target (which consensus is edging closer to - latest company-compiled consensus dated 24th January is for a 14.2% FY26 RoTE) and it makes sense to extract costs in every way that it can without damaging the franchise.
Metro Bank (MTRO) issued a RNS on Wednesday 29th January here noting that it is in preliminary discussions regarding the potential sale of its performing consumer loan portfolio. MTRO’s consumer portfolio has been in run-off as the Group pivots its strategy towards commercial, corporate and SME lending, and specialist mortgages. The bank reported gross outstanding consumer loans of £1,003m at 30th June 2024 (down from £1,297m at 31st December 2023) and it is likely to have shrunk materially further since then given the average duration of the loans. The announcement notes that the potential transaction is expected to be accretive to the CET1 capital and MREL ratios, subject to pricing. While the statement notes that there is no certainty in relation to a deal, it sounds like it is at an advanced stage and we may learn more at (or even before) the stage of the bank’s FY24 results on Thursday 27th February.
Mark Kleinman at Sky News broke the news yesterday here that NatWest Group’s (NWG) remuneration committee is close to signing off on a £450m bonus payout for FY24, up from £356m for FY23. Institutional investors are understood to be supportive of the improved payout package - and, why wouldn’t they be, following the stellar share price performance that has been delivered, which deserves to be rewarded.
Bloomberg reported here last Tuesday that Revolut is expanding into UK commercial real estate (CRE) lending and has recruited Duncan Batty (formerly led the real estate finance platform at M&G) to run the new business.
Vanquis Banking Group (VANQ) issued a RNS on Wednesday 29th January here noting that Paul Hewitt and Angela Knight will be retiring from the Board after six years as non-executive directors (NEDs).
Shareholding Changes:
Distribution Finance Capital Holdings (DFCH) issued a RNS on Monday 27th January noting that UBS’s shareholding (likely to be held in a nominee capacity) in DFCH increased to 7.91% (previously disclosed shareholding: N/A) following a transaction on Wednesday 29th January.
Distribution Finance Capital Holdings (DFCH) issued a RNS on Friday 31st January noting that Lombard Odier’s shareholding in DFCH increased to 10.01% (previously disclosed shareholding: 7.05%) following a transaction on Friday 24th January.
NatWest Group (NWG) issued a RNS on Tuesday 28th January noting that the government’s shareholding in NWG reduced to 7.98% (previously disclosed shareholding: 8.90%) following a transaction on Monday 27th January.
Paragon Banking Group (PAG) issued a RNS on Monday 27th January noting that BlackRock’s shareholding in PAG increased to 5.14% (previously disclosed shareholding: <5%) following a transaction on Friday 24th January.
Irish Updates
1) State inching closer to full exit from AIBG shareholding; Goodbody press
The State moved on the evening of Monday 27th January to dispose of a further 5% of the issued share capital in AIB Group (AIBG) at a price of €5.60 per share, netting the Exchequer proceeds of c.€652m - and bringing to c.€17.9bn the total amount returned to the government to date from its investment in AIBG (c.€19.5bn including the current market value of the State’s residual c.12.39% shareholding in the bank - and it is also notable that the State has warrants which could have value in the future). See here for the Department of Finance (DoF) press release on the transaction and here for the AIBG RNS on the sale (both of 28th January). This was a sensible move in view of the strong share price. The local consensus view is that the remainder of the shareholding will be divested through: i) a directed and on-market share buyback (the Business Post reports today here that analysts are forecasting buybacks of up to €1.1bn to be announced at the stage of the FY24 results); and ii) the ongoing drip-feeding of stock into the market through the share trading plan (which is set to recommence in late February). This should see the State completely exit the register during the early Summer months. Another alternative would be to speed it up even further by executing a further placing for the final rump of stock (post-directed buyback) if the share price builds a bit further - however, the pressure is now off in this vein. Either way, it seems almost without doubt that the State will be off the register in the very near future, which will turn attention to the topic of remuneration restrictions once again (which I wrote about in significant detail in Financials Unshackled Issue 4 here). One final point to note is that Sinn Fein (SF) criticised the disposal with the Business Post reporting here that its Finance Spokesman Pearse Doherty commented as follows: “I think this is a short sighted approach from the government. And let's be clear, their intention here is to allow for the remuneration caps in AIB and the bonuses to actually be gone. That's what this is all about. Let's call a spade a spade…The money that's received in terms of the shares the government will argue is welcome, but I would argue that the long term investment in terms of holding the shares of AIB – a bank that is highly profitable and would pay dividends to the states – would be better.”. Expect SF to make its views known on the revisiting of remuneration restrictions over the coming months.
In separate AIBG-related news, The Irish Times reported here on Saturday that Goodbody (AIBG) is “circling” BCP Asset Management, a boutique Dublin-based asset management business with c.€3bn of client assets under management (AUM) and revenues of c.€8m in FY24, according to the article. BCP is said to have a price tag of €12-14m. It makes sense for Goodbody to scale up in this specific domain given the strength of divisional management within its Asset Management business.
2) Snippets
The Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) published its Money and Banking Statistical Release for December 2024 on Friday 31st January here. On lending: i) net lending to households was +€246m m/m to +€597m in December, taking 2024 net lending flows to +€3.2bn (implying very strong growth of +3.1% y/y); and ii) non-financial corporate (NFC) net lending was +€520m/m to +€39m in December, taking 12M net lending flows to +€425m (+1.4% y/y). On deposits: i) household deposits were -€264m in December to €159.3bn, taking 2024 net deposit inflows to +€6.9bn (+4.5% y/y) though overnight deposits reduced by €962m y/y (with outflows from overnight deposits of €671m in December alone - as consumers spent ‘savings’ ahead of and during the Christmas period); and ii) NFC deposits were +€4.9bn m/m in December (with the increase driven almost entirely by overnight deposits, which were +€4.7bn m/m), taking 2024 net deposit inflows from to +€5.9bn. All in all, the update points to continued decent broad-based growth in lending which is constructive in a bank loan book expansion context in a positive macro backdrop - as well as a highly buoyant environment for deposit volumes.
The CBI has also published its Bank Lending Survey for January 2025 here (which was conducted between 6th and 20th December 2024) with the key findings being: i) Irish banks tightened credit standards for mortgages but did not change credit standards for consumer loans in 4Q24 - and banks expect to make no change in credit standards on mortgages but to tighten credit standards on consumer loans in 1Q25; ii) Banks reported that demand for mortgages and consumer loans did not change in 4Q24 (though mortgage approvals data indicates otherwise) and banks expect no change in demand for mortgages and consumer loans in 1Q25; and iii) Credit standards on loans to firms and firms’ demand for loans were unchanged in 4Q24 - and banks expect an increase in firms’ demand for loans across all categories in 1Q25.
The Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) published its Mortgage Drawdowns Report for Q4 2024 and its Mortgage Approvals Report for December 2024 (both of which can be accessed here) on Wednesday 29th January. Firstly, on the drawdowns, 4Q saw drawdowns of €3.95bn which was up by a remarkable 20.1% y/y and 15.9% q/q - with first-time buyers (FTBs) representing 63.0% of the drawdowns by value in the quarter. The data on approvals was also very encouraging in a lending volumes context for the coming months with the BPFI reporting that the value of mortgage approvals was +37.9% y/y in December (-19.2% m/m but seasonal variations are of major relevance here). This should support some marginal uplift in consensus net loan growth for Irish banks in FY25F.
Good detailed piece in The Currency here on prospective greater competition in the Irish banking market published on Monday 27th January - with the Business Post also reporting here on this theme. The Currency reported on comments that I made at a S&P Global Ratings’ webinar in December which was focused on the outlook for UK & Irish banks in 2025 specifically - and the article also reflects local stock analysts’ views too and is worth a read. I reiterate my view to the effect that competition is likely to remain relatively stable in the near to medium-term but, in the longer-term, I would categorically not underestimate the likes of Revolut, Bankinter’s Irish digital bank, and wider disruptive forces impacting on the European (and, to an extent, global) sector more broadly and I will write in some depth on this topic in due course.
The Sunday Independent reports today that “Hopes of a shake-up in the Irish banking market have been dealt a blow as the boss of Bankinter says it won’t have to “overpay” savers for Irish deposits”. This is hardly a surprise in all fairness. The reporter was referring to comments made by CEO Gloria Ortez on Bankinter’s FY24 results call which were covered comprehensively (as they relate to Bankinter in Ireland) in Financials Unshackled Issue 30 here.
Bank of Ireland UK (BIRG) issued a press release here on Tuesday 28th January announcing a £100m investment over the next three years “…to improve Everyday Banking products and services and expand its sustainable lending, mortgage, and broker offerings”. It is further noted that the investment will benefit customers in the form of “…speedier payments, enhanced functionality on the mobile banking app to improve self-service options for customers, and the introduction of new products including more sustainable lending options”. Indeed, we may hear more of these kind of initiatives from BIRG (which seem necessary in a group context more broadly given the frequent system hiccups) following the CEO’s trip to India last week to meet some of the country’s “…leading banking, wealth and fintech organisations” which he wrote about on LinkedIn on Friday here. Separately, BIRG issued a press release on Wednesday 29th January here noting that it acted as Joint MLA on an international lending syndicate to a 1.1GW offshore wind farm JV between Red Rock Renewables and ESB, agreeing to provide £98m in finance for the project.
In separate BIRG-related news both The Sunday Times and the Business Post report today that Davy is making 10 staff within its UK Capital Markets unit redundant. I guess the reporters in question aren’t reading Financials Unshackled as this development was covered in Financials Unshackled Issue 30 on 26th January last here!
Other Shareholding Changes:
AIB Group (AIBG) issued a RNS on Wednesday 29th January noting that Wellington’s shareholding in AIBG increased to 4.47% (previously disclosed shareholding: 3.01%) following a transaction on Tuesday 28th January.
Global (incl. European) Updates
Snippets:
Bloomberg reported on Thursday here on the wave of job cuts announced by European banks since the turn of the year - I was delighted to contribute to the article opining that this is essentially a reflection of how European banks have struggled to compete with their US peers since the GFC.
Bloomberg also reported on Thursday here that investment bankers are offering to execute leveraged lending transactions for private equity (PE) players for no fees to remain in the running for future deals and maintain headcount.
S&P Global Market Intelligence reported on Tuesday last here that European banks’ acquisition of asset managers are set to increase in 2025 following the ‘Danish compromise’ becoming a permanent feature of EU law since 1st January. Indeed, Aidan Gregory at The Insurer published an extensive piece here on this topic on 10th December last which I was delighted to contribute to.
Significant risk transfers (SRTs) remain ‘in vogue’ in 2025 with Bloomberg reporting here on Friday that BNP Paribas is offering a SRT deal linked to about €800m in loans. A subsequent Bloomberg report here on Friday afternoon notes that BBVA has established a new unit called Capital & Active Balance Sheet Management to “define and execute the global strategy of capital optimization in the group” and is said to be aiming to increase its use of SRTs. All makes a lot of sense.
The World Economic Forum (WEF) has published a White Paper on Artificial Intelligence in Financial Services here (the first in a series), which finds that: i) Financial services businesses with their data-rich and language-heavy operations are uniquely positioned to capitalise on the developments of AI and have been doing so for years; ii) Financial services firms spent $35bn on AI in 2023, with projected investments across banking, insurance, capital markets and payments businesses expected to reach $97bn by 2027; iii) With much of the existing AI adoption in financial services largely focused on driving efficiency, the attention of business leaders is now shifting towards revenue growth opportunities (with c.70% of financial services executives of the view that AI will directly contribute to revenue growth in the coming years); iv) The rapid maturing of AI, coupled with an expanding list of applicable uses, is pushing the industry towards reinvention at an unprecedented speed and scale (indeed, Deepseek springs to mind…); and v) Looking ahead, financial services stakeholders must increase collaboration to address key risks such as data transparency, privacy, cybersecurity and the spread of misinformation, while also closing policy gaps that could hinder the use and innovation of AI. A helpful summary of the WEF report was published in The Financial Brand here. Indeed, last week also saw UK Finance publish a report in collaboration with Accenture here, which looks at how generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being used by financial services firms to enhance operations, improve customer engagement, and drive innovation (Finextra news report on this development here). Finally, we also learned last week here that NatWest Group (NWG) has acquired a minority investment in Serene, an early-stage AI platform dedicated to tackling financial vulnerability (Finextra report on this development here).
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